Biden administration struggles with Israel-Palestine crisis

By: Kerry Boyd Anderson

The recent increase in violence in the West Bank and the efforts to weaken Israel’s judiciary are straining US-Israel relations. However, while the Biden administration has expressed concern, it continues to promote a two-state solution and its relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The fissures in the bilateral relationship are more likely to have an impact in the long term.

In the last year, violence in the West Bank including East Jerusalem has increased. According to the UN, 2022 was “the deadliest year for Palestinians in the West Bank since the United Nations started recording fatalities systematically in 2005.” Events so far in 2023 suggest even more violence, with 60 Palestinians and 14 Israelis killed in the first two months, according to the BBC.

Some of the violent events in the last few weeks have been particularly shocking. Israeli raids in Jenin in January and Nablus in February killed at least nine and 11 Palestinians, respectively, while wounding more. Individual Palestinian attackers killed seven Israelis outside a synagogue in January and three people, including two young children, at a bus stop in February, among other attacks that resulted in deaths or injuries.

On Feb. 26, Israeli and Palestinian representatives met in Aqaba, where Jordanian, Egyptian and US diplomats pushed them to agree to de-escalation terms. A statement listing the terms was issued, but some senior Israeli officials immediately disavowed any concession.

That night, in retaliation for the killing of two Israelis, a mob of settlers attacked the Palestinian town of Huwara, killing one Palestinian and injuring others while burning cars and buildings and terrorizing families. Some Israeli leaders strongly condemned the attack, but several members of the government made only mildly critical statements or even praised the attack.

The violence continues, including a Feb. 27 shooting near Jericho that killed an Israeli-American man and, this week, a second settler attack on Huwara and a raid on Jenin that left several Palestinians dead.

Meanwhile, Israel’s ruling coalition is working to pass laws that would effectively end the judiciary’s ability to serve as a check on the government, prompting large-scale protests among Israelis.

It continues to promote a two-state solution, even though the current Israeli government openly seeks to annex the West Bank

Kerry Boyd Anderson

Washington looks at all of this with concern. Last week, State Department spokesman Ned Price condemned “the terrorist attacks that Israel has suffered in recent days.” He added: “We also condemn the widescale, indiscriminate violence by settlers against Palestinian civilians.” He called on the Israeli government to administer justice equally, including “full accountability” for settlers who attacked Palestinians.

After Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said, “I think the village of Huwara needs to be erased,” Price called the comments “repugnant” and “disgusting.” US diplomats have also privately expressed concern about rolling back the Israeli judiciary’s role, according to media reports.

The Biden administration looks lost on how to deal with the realities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Israeli politics. It continues to promote a two-state solution, even though the current Israeli government openly seeks to annex the West Bank. The State Department maintains that the Aqaba agreement was important, even though neither side is likely to implement it. The administration condemns violence by both sides, but refers to Palestinian violence as “terrorism” while refusing to apply the term to Israeli violence. The White House continues to rely on the idea that Netanyahu is in charge and is someone that Washington can work with, despite all indications to the contrary on both points.

In US foreign policy and political circles, there are essentially three strands of thinking regarding the current crisis. First, Republicans are solidly behind the Israeli government, with very little criticism of Israeli violence coming from Republican media or politicians.

A second approach comes from the traditional American centrist position on Israel: strong support for Israel with some concern about Palestinian rights. The experts and officials in this group are disappointed to see increased violence against Palestinians, but they tend to downplay such violence or blame Palestinians. Members of this group are as or more concerned about a potential blow to Israel’s judiciary and its implications for Israeli democracy.

The third strand of thinking in Washington circles comes from the voices that have gradually gained some attention in the last 10 to 20 years: experts and activists who see Palestinian rights as equal to Israeli rights and have been willing to criticize Israeli policies. This group is not surprised to see mob violence against Palestinians or an erosion of Israeli democracy, because they see both as the natural consequence of decades of repressive policies against Palestinians and the increasingly rightward shift in Israeli politics.

US-Israel relations have been strained in the last few years for multiple reasons. Now, the one-two punch of increased violence and diminished democracy makes it more difficult for Israel’s friends in Washington to defend unconditional US support for the Israeli government. If successful, Netanyahu’s efforts to undermine judicial checks on his power will make it harder for politicians and foreign policy practitioners to argue that Israel is a natural ally because it is the “only democracy in the Middle East.” Mob violence against Palestinians with impunity challenges the long-held idea that the US and Israel share the same values.

Despite these strains in the relationship, the Biden administration and Congress are very unlikely to abandon the alliance with Israel or to seriously reduce aid. The US-Israel alliance is firmly embedded in elite Washington views and policies. However, recent events will place more pressure on the struggling relationship between Israel and the Democratic Party, especially as younger Democrats gain influence.

• Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant with more than 18 years of experience as a professional analyst of international security issues and Middle East political and business risk. Her previous positions include deputy director for advisory with Oxford Analytica. Twitter: @KBAresearch

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