With US leadership and European support we Ukrainians may at last have peace. But don’t let Russia off the hook

By Andriy Yermak – The Guardian:

Today’s Jeddah summit will be crucial. But so too is the need for European unity to counter Russian aggression now, and deter it in the future

As I arrive in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, a ceasefire in the three-year war the Russian Federation has waged on my country has never seemed closer. Recent talks between Ukraine and its partners have given rise to great hope that the Ukrainian people will very soon return to the peaceful lives that they enjoyed before the war began in 2014 or the extreme escalation since 2022.

I believe that together with strong American leadership we can reach this goal. The prospect of peace – long hoped for – forces every Ukrainian to reflect on our shared gratitude, concern and determination. Gratitude for the support and confidence that we have received in recent years, concern for the future of Europe and determination to reaffirm Ukraine’s democratic, European convictions. No one wants the current war to end more than our people – but a peace must be found that is both just and sustainable.

A ceasefire in Ukraine will not come through diplomatic gestures alone. A number of conditions are crucial beforehand in order to ensure that peace – when it comes – is lasting. This includes putting political and financial pressure on Russia to raise the cost of renewed conflict.

First, Ukraine must be given security guarantees that lend credibility to a future ceasefire agreement. Second, Europe must act decisively to strengthen and increase the sanctions against Russia. And third, Europe should take control of the frozen Russian assets to enable continued and increased support for Ukraine. Last week’s European Council session proves that Europe – when united – can take control of its own security and destiny. It is our concern for lasting European security that drives Ukraine’s insistence on these conditions. Moscow’s decade-long aggression against Ukraine cannot be taken lightly – the leaders of Europe recognise this and we call on them in this critical time to deliver on the promising discussions in Brussels last Thursday.

The growing recognition of the need to enhance European strategic autonomy on defence, backed up by fiscal flexibility on defence spending, is an important step. Europe’s decision to jointly borrow up to €150bn for member-state defence spending is critical. This – combined with a potential €20bn for Ukraine’s defence – will make a tangible contribution to establishing a robust defence architecture for the whole of Europe.

Credible deterrence will help to ensure that any ceasefire has the best chances of becoming a lasting peace. Europe cannot allow a ceasefire that serves only to allow Russia to rearm, rebuild its forces and come back for more Ukrainian lands and resources.

The EU has just approved its 16th sanctions package against Russia, hitting key sectors such as imports of aluminium and broadening export restrictions. This economic pressure must be maintained – to strengthen all of our economic autonomy.

Stronger sanctions will close loopholes in the financial system, preventing European businesses and institutions from indirectly funding Russia’s war machine, while also setting a precedent for dealing with future threats. In the long run, Europe’s decreased dependency on Russia will bring geopolitical strength and market stability.

Europe has promised €30.6bn in financial support this year. We are grateful for this commitment to our future and economic recovery.

Yet one of the most potent tools in Europe’s arsenal is the €300bn in frozen Russian assets held in western financial institutions. These resources should remain under embargo, with profits used to sustain Ukraine’s financial recovery. Allowing Russia to reclaim these funds after its war of aggression would have catastrophic consequences.

We greatly appreciate the generosity of the US and its efforts to achieve peace for Ukraine. But European unity is no less important in this process. Only together can we build a security architecture that will guarantee peace and prosperity for generations to come.

A stronger, safer and more resilient Europe – militarily, politically and economically – is our shared goal. Securing a meaningful ceasefire is the first step. This requires a Europe that is economically and politically resilient. Europe must be prepared to act to deliver its own security, and Russia must understand the political and economic cost of using force to achieve its ends.