An amazing turnaround? A less terrible disaster? After these byelections, Sunak may not be able to deliver either

By Katy Balls, The Guardian.

The prime minister’s allies are trying to explain away today’s humiliating losses, but most MPs accept the threat is existential.

“I’m not looking forward to tonight,” was one senior Conservative aide’s thought ahead of Thursday’s byelection count. Their concern proved warranted, as hours later the Tories went on to lose both the Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire byelections – with Labour overturning eye-watering majorities of 19,634 and 24,664 respectively.

This is, of course, part of a succession of bad byelection results for the Tories. Indeed, it’s been a trend of the past two years. But the fact that both seats are, on paper, extremely safe Tory strongholds, means that these results cannot be discounted purely as midterm blues. As the polling expert Prof John Curtice put it, they “represent one of the worst byelection nights that any government has had to endure”.

Neither seat is high on Labour’s target list, and the Tories could well win them back in a general election. But it’s the vote swing – above 20 percentage points in each – that will alarm Conservative MPs. Those with majorities of about 15,000 will worry that they could be heading for defeat in a general election. “It’s pretty depressing, whichever way you look at it,” says a former minister.

Others are keen to try to put a positive spin on things. The Tory MP WhatsApp group is often the place for blue-on-blue attacks in times of stress. But since the results came through, it’s been the opposite, as MPs pile in defiantly, arguing that a general election will be different. “It’s unnerving,” says one MP of the spate of messages. In a sign of the effort to be positive, one parliamentarian chipped in to say what an “enjoyable” campaign it was. “I prefer campaigns where we win,” an unimpressed MP quipped to me.

There is no agreement in the Tory party as to what or who exactly is to blame for the losses. Sunak loyalists point the finger at the behaviour of Nadine Dorries, who quit over a row about a peerage, and Chris Pincher, who was brought down by allegations of sexual harassment. “It’s hard to win byelections when the previous MP has behaved badly,” says one MP. “In Tamworth, voters had a disgraced MP who went into hiding over a year ago,” argues another, fresh from campaigning in the seat.

Another justification doing the rounds is that it’s hard for the government to get its vote out midterm. “It’s a classic byelection, where Tory voters stay at home,” says a senior Tory. The hope is this will be different in a general election. “It will be different,” insists a minister. “As that’s when the public have to decide whether to take a risk on Keir Starmer.”

Then there are those who blame the ground campaign. “We lost by around 1,000 votes in each seat,” says one Tory MP. “The lack of campaigning on the ground was obvious. Not enough ministers and MPs put their time in. We need to move to general election mode.” MPs who did visit to campaign complain that they were told to leaflet, rather than door-knock – which is more time-intensive but arguably more effective.

But if these are the reasons MPs broadly supportive of Sunak are giving, what about those who feel the problem is more fundamental? After the results, David Frost – the Tory peer and potential leadership candidate – declared that they “show that the national polls are broadly correct, and that a strategy of denial is unlikely to work”. Others are advancing this argument privately. MPs on the right of the party – including a number of one-time Trussites – argue the party ought to change course and focus on issues that would get the core vote out, such as tax cuts. The relatively good news for No 10 is that this anti-Sunak faction is still in the minority. Even Sunak’s most ardent critics admit they wouldn’t have the numbers in a confidence vote.

But Sunak still needs to provide his party with cause for hope if it is to have a chance of appearing united in the buildup to next year’s election. There is a growing number of complaints that the party conference was a missed opportunity. “It failed to move the dial,” says a seasoned party figure. “It should have been used to change the narrative, but it turned into a four-day fight about HS2.”

Now Sunak is under pressure to use the coming king’s speech and autumn statement to calm his MPs’ nerves. He needs it, if he is going to have a chance of improving the party’s fortunes – whether by staging a miraculous turnaround or simply stemming the losses.